Douglas Yates

Professor Douglas Yates, who teaches African politics at the American Graduate School in Paris, was invited to speak about the recent post-Robert Mugabe elections in Zimbabwe on the France 24 TV show "The World This Week", on August 3rd.

The much anticipated elections, the first since Mugabe was ousted in November 2017, saw a face-off between Mugabe’s former chief of security and acting interim president Emerson Mnangagwa, who had staged the November coup, and his main opponant Nelson Chamisa, who had inherited the leadership of the opposition MDC after the death of long-time regime opponent Mirgan Tsvangirai. The MDC had been a party unified ideologically by its opposition to 37-year dictator Mugabe, and politically by its support for the charismatic leader Tsvangirai.

Professor Yates explained that the disappearance of both men from the equation left the opposition MDC splintered, a weakness of which the ruling ZANU took advantage to win both the presidential and legislative elections.
On August 15-16, Prof. Yates will be travelling to Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe, for a panel on economic history at the annual conference of Africa Covening.

Watch "The World This Week" on France 24, with AGS Professor Douglas Yates

Professor Douglas Yates was invited by the United States government to present his research at the Africa "Board of Experts" Conference, 21-22 May, 2018, in McLean, Virginia, outside of Washington D.C .

The Africa Board of Experts Conference is an annual event bringing together intelligence specialists with think tanks experts and university scholars in order to share academic expertise with federal government analysts working on African affairs in the diplomatic corps, defense department, and intelligence community. Other academic experts participating in the event included Nicolas Van de Walle from Cornell University, Ambassador David Shinn from George Washington University, Nic Cheeseman from the University of Birmingham, and Leo Arriola from UC Berkeley, among others.

The main themes of this year's gathering were the alarming decline of democracy across the African continent, the ongoing armed conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the effects of the emerging China-Africa relationship, the promotion of economic development in Africa through trade, and the direction of US African policy under the current administration.

Yates, who teaches contemporary African politics at AGS, presented his research on France’s political, economic, and security influence in Francophone Africa. Yates has authored numerous publications on this topic. Among the most recent this year are two chapters in edited volumes : “France and Africa,” in Dawn Nagar and Charles Mutasa, eds. Africa and the World: Bilateral and Multilateral International Diplomacy (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave MacMillan, 2018), “French Military Interventions in Africa,” in Tony Karbo and Kudrat Virk, eds. The Palgrave Handbook of Peacebuilding in Africa (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2018), as well as an article in the International Journal of Political Economy: "Paradoxes of Predation in Francophone Africa" (vol. 48, no. 2 [2018]).

In his work on the topic, Yates shows that, despite denials by French scholars that France continues to play a dominant role in its former African colonial empire, there is a continuation of its military, economic, and political predominance. Yet he demonstrates a paradox in the French African policy, in that France is both too strong and too weak in its former empire.

Professor Yates recently had a chapter on "France and Africa" published in Africa and the World: Bilateral and Multilateral International Diplomacy (Dawn Nagar and Charles Mutasa Eds, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018).

This edited volume is an international relations textbook providing a comprehensive survey of Africa's relations with key bilateral actors (US, Britain, China, Russia, France, Portugal, Italy, Brazil, India) as well as multilateral actors (UN, ICC, BRICS, EU, WTO, World Bank, IMF) since the end of the Cold War.

In his chapter, which is the fruit of almost three decades of research on francophone Africa, Yates argues that France is paradoxically both too strong and too weak in its former African empire and that it now faces a risk of military overextension, which if not addressed, might leave it in a position so reduced that it will not be able to defend itself from emerging security threats in the international system.

More information on the publisher's website

Professor Douglas Yates was invited to participate in a televised debate on France 24 on February 22^nd, following the mass kidnapping by Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram in Nigeria on February 19^th. Over 100 girls are believed to still be missing after this latest attack, which brings back memories of the kidnapping of 270 girls in Chibok by that same organization in 2014.

Along with a counter-terrorist expert, a representative of the Nigerian government, and the president of the #BringBackOurGirls movement, AGS’s African politics expert Douglas Yates discussed questions about possible solutions to the on-going threat that the Boko Haram organization has represented in the Lake Chad region. Responding to the questions of France 24 anchor Mark Owen, Douglas Yates explained:

“This [mass kidnapping mode of operation] is part of a strategic negotiation that [Boko Haram] is using with the federal government. We know that in 2014 a deal was struck with Boko Haram to release Chibok girls for electoral purposes. Now Nigeria is coming up to election time and it looks like once again, Boko Haram is capturing busloads of girls to strategically negotiate more advantages, perhaps millions of dollars, which will feed into the cycle. It’s a successful modus operandi – like in the Niger Delta, the hijacking of oil workers is a successful strategy: it generates money, it gets attention, and it forces the government to negotiate.”

“The fact that we’re seeing exactly the same scenario repeat itself means the government needs to change strategy. […] This raises the big question in Nigeria: what are the causes of the Boko Haram insurgency. In Nigeria we have two very large examples of insurgencies. In one case the Nigerian government was successful: it was the Biafra secession. There, the approach was a very heavy-handed military solution. It resulted in a lot of deaths, but it was a preponderant military success. That is one way of trying to solve the crisis. If Nigeria is going that way, it’s going to have to commit itself whole-heartedly towards fighting a war like they fought in Biafra. (…) But it will mean a lot of killing and Nigeria will look bad. And it’s not going to be necessary to do that to win an election. So the other solution is what we saw in the Niger delta. How was it that under Goodluck Jonathan the Nigerian government was able to reduce the amount of violence of the insurgents in the Niger delta – which has now come back. That was by dealing with their grievances. Boko Haram is changing in response to the strategies used against it. The Boko Haram that took the Chibok girls was not the Boko Haram of its founder. The goals have changed and the strategies have changed. So the heavy-handed military use must change for a better counter-insurgency strategy. [However,] the only way you change that behavior is not by continually perpetrating human rights abuses, alienating the local population.”

See full video of "The Debate", France 24, 22 February 2018

Photos: courtesy of France 24 (screenshots)

Professor Douglas Yates has just published the fourth edition of the Historical Dictionary of Gabon (Rowman & Littlefield, 2018). This new edition brings the political affairs of this French-speaking, oil-rich, equatorial African country up to date since the accession to power of Ali Bongo, eldest son of Omar Bongo, who died in 2009 after the publication of the third edition.

Yates is an established country expert who has been researching and writing about Gabon for the past quarter-century, starting in 1993 with his doctoral dissertation at Boston University, later published as The Rentier State in Africa: Oil-Rent Dependency and Neo-Colonialism in the Republic of Gabon (Trenton: Africa World Press, 1996). Since then, he has taught and directed graduate research on African politics at the American Graduate School in Paris and has consulted for the State Department and Defense Department of the United States government as well as non-governmental organizations, private international investment firms, African studies centers, and European development agencies. Yates was already the co-author (with Marquette University's David Gardinier) of the previous edition of the Historical Dictionary of Gabon (2006) and has also authored the annual chapter on “Gabon” for Brill’s Africa Yearbook since its creation in 2004.

This fourth edition opens with a historical introduction providing general coverage of major aspects of Gabon’s past, from prehistory, through the ages of exploration, colonialism, and decolonization, until the contemporary post-independence period. This overview is followed by a veritable miscellany on Gabon, with more than 300 cross-referenced entries on historical events, economic sectors, foreign relations, political and social movements, economic actors, ethnic, linguistic and religious groups, health, education, arts, and culture. The volume also includes an extensive bibliography, divided into several general subject areas – archaeology, history, government, economy, society, sciences, and arts.

"I first came to this project as a political scientist who specialized in the negative effects of oil on Gabonese development," said Yates. "So when David Gardinier approached me to co-author the third edition, I had never conducted bibliographic research about many of the subjects in the historical dictionary. It has been a broadening experience. Finding the latest works in linguistics for Gabon's numerous ethnic groups, listening to pygmy chants in the late colonial ethno-musical archives, delving into publications by archaeologists who have discovered early iron age civilizations of the rainforest, accessing new print on demand versions of previously unpublished journals of early fifteenth century explorers, reading scientific articles by primatologists about lowland Gorilla populations, following medical research conducted in Gabon on tropical diseases, every day discovering a new disciplinary approach to Gabon, has led me to hundreds of specialists on the country who would otherwise have never beeped on my radar screen."

The Historical Dictionaries series have been published by Rowman and Littlefield’s Scarecrow Press for 40 years and can be found in research centers, university libraries, think tanks, and embassy bookshelves around the world. They are an excellent access point for students, researchers and anyone who wants to know more about particular countries. They provide expert information through several approaches and represent the most detailed, comprehensive, and accurate resource available on a topic.

On 18 December 2017, AGS specialist of African politics Professor Douglas Yates was invited by the Chinese international news television station CGTN to speak about the recent rescue of Chinese workers abducted by pirates in Nigeria. Yates explained the causes for the rising number of hostage-takings since 2016 by rebel groups such as the Niger Delta Avengers. As the price of oil has dropped these groups have shifted their attacks from the hijacking of offshore platforms and tankers for illegal sales of their oil shipments, to taking hostages for ransom, at the moment a more profitable activity.

When asked what China can do to meet this challenge, Yates suggested promoting the economic development of the coastal region. « The main lesson that the military forces of the world have learned in trying to control Somali piracy is that the pirates are a symptom of underdevelopment, of poverty, and in this region of Nigeria if you want to stop piracy, you have to offer the people real alternatives. The oil industry has destroyed fishing in that region. The oil industry has polluted their drinking water, taken mangrove forests that used to provide an easy livelihood, and made unbearable living conditions. So the big lesson of Somali is that you have to promote development if you want to fight piracy at its roots.”

See video of the interview - starting at 14'07"

On November 29, Douglas Yates, AGS’s expert on African politics, was invited by the international news TV network France 24 to comment on the political relations between France the African continent on the occasion of French President Emmanuel Macron’s three day official visit to Africa.

Professor Yates said that while he believes President Macron, like former President Hollande, came to the French presidency with no African background or expertise, his claim that France has no African policy is a denial of the deep interests that France continues to have in its former colonies. According to Yates, France does have a strong African policy, with foreign relations, permanent forces stationed in Africa, monetary interests, an intelligence network, a journalistic community, and vast business interests, as well as masonery and various networks inherited from “the dark ages of Françafrique”.

Yates relates the complex relationship that France has had with its former colonies in Africa to the way that it granted them independence, as in that process it created a series of cooperation accords that institutionally tied it to its former colonies, while maintaining its power status in the international system.

Although President Macron claims to have a peaceful and respectful relationship to African heads of State, Yates insisted on the fact that this policy does not seem to address the major issues of security, migration, and human trafficking. “Macron is talking about inviting entrepreneurs and letting athletes come and train for the Olympics, but the real issue, and the reason that there is a summit, is the migrant crisis and the millions of Africans that are fleeing collapsing countries,” he said. “The only way to stop these human flows is to inject tremendous amounts of capital and assistance to the countries so that people can remain, but also to not skate around democracy. Many of these people are flooding out of dictatorships, which the North as funded and continues to fund, particularly in resource-rich countries.”

On February 23, Professor Douglas Yates was invited by the Chinese TV network CGTN (formerly CCTV News) to speak about the implications of the official state visit of French Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve to Beijing to discuss economic cooperation with China. Yates insisted that despite Cazeneuve being a 'late night appointment' of President François Hollande, his official visit was intended to send a clear message that the current government of France was not protectionist, and wanted to deepen its economic cooperation with Beijing.

Asked about the danger of Marine Le Pen winning the upcoming French presidential elections, Yates observed the growing climate of fear that has captured a large segment of the French electorate, pushing them towards the extreme right. Yates, however, noted that increased foreign direct investment by France in high tech industries, including recent development in nuclear and biotechnology, indicates growing trust between Chinese and French partners, all of which could be upset by a Le Pen victory.

Finally, when asked about China's competition with France in Africa, Yates noted that the same fears which are pushing French voters to support Le Pen have led some French to feel that China is invading 'their' Africa, using the phrase 'Chinafrique' to express these concerns, but that concrete planners see only advantages of Chinese capital coming into the underfinanced francophone African economies.

See full interview on CGTN

On Saturday 29 October Professor Yates was invited as a guest on the radio program "Eco d'ici, Eco d'ailleurs", an hour-long economic show that is broadcast every Saturday on the French national radio station RFI.

Yates spoke about the state of the American economy in light of the declinist rhetoric coming out of the presidential elections. He reminded that the United States is the premier economic power in the world, representing around one fifth of the world GDP. It is rich in natural resources and a great exporter of cultural goods, with universities that attract brilliant students, placing the country at the cutting edge of technological progress. The US dollar has conserved its place as a reserve of value and the US stock exchange has drained the capital of the entire world towards the financing of its businesses, with numerous sectors remaining dominated by single American enterprises. Yet despite all of that, the perception in America of the US economy is one of decline.

With the radio host Jean-Pierre Boris and along wih the other guests, including former AGS economics professor William Stewart, Yates attempted to resolve this paradox.

Listen to the radio show (in French)

On 24 September, Professor Yates was invited by France 24 television to speak about the recent post-electoral violence in Gabon, following the contested re-election of President Ali Bongo, who is the son of the former president Omar Bongo.

Yates explained how the Bongo family has ruled Gabon since 1967, transforming the former French colony into a veritable 'dynastic republic.'

Popular protests broke out after the recent August 27th elections, the results of which were contested by Bongo's main opponent Jean Ping, former head of the African Union.  The Bongo regime arrested hundreds of protestors, used the armed forces to impose a curfew, and shut down internet access to prevent an Arab Spring-style coordination of civil unrest.

Despite calls for a re-count by the European Union, the United States and the Afican Union, the Constitutional Court confirmed Bongo's victory.